Columbus had a couple of near-freezing mornings last week on the 22nd and 25th, only to be followed by near-record highs on Sunday and Monday. Nothing like some weather whiplash to end April…
Of course, getting warm weather this time of year means people are itching to plant flowers (me included). The conventional wisdom back in Iowa, where we used to live, was to wait until after Mother’s Day weekend to avoid the threat of frost. But what about in Central Ohio?
Well, we already bought some annuals, so… that should clue you in on where I stand on the matter this year.
Instead of using the Columbus airport specifically for this little exercise, I’m going off the Midwest Regional Climate Center’s nifty Freeze Date Tool. It uses gridded data from 1950-2023, and incorporates Franklin County as a whole.
A couple of notes: I consider 36 a good threshold for frost, since the ground itself can very easily be at least a few degrees colder than where a thermometer is located. “Late last date” is when only 10% of the time gets that cold after that date.
| Temperature | Average Last Date | Late Last Date |
|---|---|---|
| 28 (hard freeze) | April 7 | April 19 |
| 32 (freeze) | April 20 | May 5 |
| 36 (frost) | May 2 | May 15 |
So, climatologically, we’re definitely past the average date of the last freeze, but not quite to the average date of the last frost, which tends to nip more sensitive plants. And we’re not yet to the point that 9 out of 10 frosts or freezes are behind us, either.
But that’s long-term climatology. For this year in particular, we have no strong signs of additional frost concerns through at least the first week of May. Here’s the nearly full range of the National Blend of Models forecast. The coldest “reasonable” lows are in the upper 40s, far from any worries.
Looking beyond that, the Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 day outlook, valid for the second week of May, shows the odds favor above-average temperatures in the region.
So, another bout of frost this spring appears highly unlikely. By the time we hit mid-May, it’s awfully unusual to get that cold.
Go ahead and buy those flowers.